Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.960758 4.314227 4.705172 5.173721 5.725611 6.362289 7.163396
2025-02-02 3.583683 4.066917 4.641321 5.389619 6.363262 7.626014 9.461360
2025-02-09 3.322388 3.874364 4.563477 5.516701 6.855404 8.768842 11.944634
2025-02-16 3.062323 3.636518 4.377675 5.447256 7.036831 9.489988 14.056155
2025-02-23 2.866472 3.454153 4.233683 5.399478 7.219928 10.235185 16.530106
2025-03-02 2.702831 3.296092 4.100923 5.341383 7.363994 10.938355 19.302989
2025-03-09 2.564963 3.159849 3.982598 5.284576 7.491847 11.638113 22.543304
2025-03-16 2.459196 3.058826 3.903574 5.275198 7.693134 12.534991 27.091281
2025-03-23 2.393125 3.007820 3.891428 5.367900 8.090055 13.978279 35.178639
2025-03-30 2.284402 2.888234 3.766310 5.258262 8.083652 14.496680 40.675875
2025-04-06 2.185656 2.777476 3.646708 5.145326 8.051694 14.946485 46.872674
2025-04-13 2.077209 2.647198 3.489070 4.952566 7.829895 14.835671 49.973750
2025-04-20 2.039976 2.621623 3.495063 5.051458 8.241738 16.676487 73.117043
2025-04-27 2.027690 2.632246 3.558534 5.260454 8.940401 19.833021 143.414371
2025-05-04 1.998269 2.614773 3.574611 5.382590 9.471290 22.877777 346.396188
2025-05-11 1.935983 2.543441 3.496895 5.315936 9.527896 24.147358 741.675211
2025-05-18 1.881874 2.482421 3.432843 5.270058 9.630348 25.733055 4511.530341
2025-05-25 1.829717 2.422252 3.366849 5.214258 9.697684 27.253298 NaN
2025-06-01 1.781117 2.365762 3.304139 5.159682 9.759943 28.854652 NaN
2025-06-08 1.742993 2.324382 3.265216 5.150669 9.950038 31.435515 NaN
2025-06-15 1.722577 2.310356 3.272847 5.239730 10.447584 36.760953 NaN
2025-06-22 1.673521 2.248342 3.192903 5.134394 10.336753 37.662671 NaN
2025-06-29 1.626448 2.188157 3.113855 5.025829 10.200826 38.309449 NaN